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Photovoltaic industry is an important field of international energy competition. In recent years, photovoltaic power generation technology has continued to progress, and the iteration speed has accelerated, and it has changed from conventional aluminum backfield (BSF) solar cell technology to back passivation (PERC) solar cell technology, from mortar cutting technology to diamond wire cutting technology, from polycrystalline silicon solar cells to monocrystalline silicon solar cells. Each round of technological change indicates that photovoltaic companies that cannot keep up with the pace of technological change and respond poorly will face being eliminated.
Therefore, scientific judgment of the development trend of photovoltaic power generation technology in the next stage and analysis of the industrialization trend of photovoltaic power generation technology are crucial to the development of photovoltaic enterprises and even the photovoltaic industry. Based on the current emergence of various types of photovoltaic power generation technology routes are analyzed in this paper, from different directions to predict the future development trend of photovoltaic power generation technology.
1 Future development trend analysis of photovoltaic power generation technology
1.1 PERC crystalline silicon solar cells are the solar cell type with the highest market share at present, and the cost performance advantage is obvious, and there is still room for improvement
At present, the mainstream solar cell technology in the market is P-type PERC crystal silicon solar cell technology, from the equipment and materials have achieved domestic batch supply, the industrial chain is mature, and the production cost is relatively low. In 2020, the production cost of PERC crystalline silicon solar cells has been reduced to 0.75 yuan /W. From the perspective of product performance, in 2020, the industrial average photoelectric conversion efficiency of PERC monocrystalline silicon solar cells has reached 22.8%, is expected to exceed 23% in 2021, and is still expected to increase at an average annual rate of 0.3 percentage points in the future. According to the data of China Photovoltaic Industry Association (CPIA), the market share of PERC crystalline silicon solar cells will reach 86.4% in 2020; Before 2025, it will remain the mainstream solar cell technology in the market, and the market share of PERC crystalline silicon solar cells is expected to remain above 65% in 2025.
1.2 N-type crystalline silicon solar cell technology is an important development direction of future solar cell technology
Judging from the development trend of solar cell technology in the future, With the development of N-type tunneling oxide passivation contact (n-TOPCon) monocrystalline silicon solar cells and heterojunction (HJT) monocrystalline silicon solar cells The gradual operation of the new production line, the gradual expansion of the production scale, the gradual increase of the localization rate of equipment and materials, the gradual decline of equipment prices and production costs, the gradual improvement of product performance and competitiveness, and the gradual optimization of the production process, This type of solar cell will rapidly increase its market share with higher photoelectric conversion efficiency and lower decay rate than PERC crystalline silicon solar cells. The forecast trend of the market share of various solar cell technologies from 2020 to 2030 is shown in Figure 1.
As can be seen from Figure 1, CPIA predicts that by 2023, the total market share of all N-type crystalline silicon solar cells will increase to about 17.6%. According to the analysis, during the period of 2028-2029, N-type crystalline silicon solar cells will surpass PERC crystalline silicon solar cells to become the dominant solar cell technology in the future, and considering the rapid progress of photovoltaic technology, the time point is likely to advance.
1.3 n-TOPCon monocrystalline silicon solar cell technology is expected to achieve rapid mass production of N-type crystalline silicon solar cell technology
In the N-type crystalline silicon solar cell technology, including n-TOPCon monocrystalline silicon solar cells, HJT monocrystalline silicon solar cells, IBC monocrystalline silicon solar cells, although n-TOPCon monocrystalline silicon solar cells and HJT monocrystalline silicon solar cells have formed gigawatt production capacity, but the actual output of both is low. It is still in the stage of mass production verification; IBC monocrystalline silicon solar cells due to the complex production process and high production cost, the current production enterprises are mainly based on SunPower Company in the United States, and there are only a few experimental production lines in China, and it has not achieved mass production. Compared with HJT monocrystalline silicon solar cells, n-TOPCon monocrystalline silicon solar cells are expected to achieve mass production faster.
The development advantages of n-TOPCon monocrystalline silicon solar cells are mainly reflected in the following two aspects.
1) The n-TOPCon monocrystalline silicon solar cell process production line has high compatibility, which can be compatible with the high-temperature preparation process production line of PERC crystal silicon solar cells. The existing PERC crystal silicon solar cell process production line can be upgraded to n-TOPCon monocrystalline silicon solar cell process production line only by adding B diffusion equipment and PECVD-poly three-in-one equipment. The HJT monocrystalline silicon solar cell process is completely different from the existing PERC crystal silicon solar cell process, therefore, based on the industry's existing huge capacity of PERC crystal silicon solar cells, the more acceptable photovoltaic power generation technology route in the future is to make full use of the existing production line to upgrade to n-TOPCon monocrystalline silicon solar cell production line.
2) From the current stage, n-TOPCon monocrystalline silicon solar cells have more obvious cost-effective advantages. From the perspective of product performance, n-TOPCon monocrystalline silicon solar cells can also achieve higher photoelectric conversion efficiency, and the gap between the photoelectric conversion efficiency and that of HJT monocrystalline silicon solar cells is not obvious.
The change trend of industrial average photoelectric conversion efficiency of Class 2 monocrystalline silicon solar cell technology from 2020 to 2030 is shown in Table 1.
As can be seen from Table 1, in 2020, the industrial average photoelectric conversion efficiency of n-TOPCon monocrystalline silicon solar cells has reached 23.5%, which is only 0.3 percentage points lower than the industrial average photoelectric conversion efficiency of HJT monocrystalline silicon solar cells. By 2030, the gap will be less than 0.2 percentage points. From the point of view of the highest photoelectric conversion efficiency, in 2021, the laboratory photoelectric conversion efficiency of large-area n-TOPCon monocrystal silicon solar cells developed by JinkoSolar Holdings Co., LTD. (hereinafter referred to as "Jinkosolar") reached 24.90%. It is also only 0.21 percentage points lower than the laboratory photoelectric conversion efficiency (25.11%) of the world-record HJT monocrystalline silicon solar cell of Hanergy Mobile Energy Holding Group Co., LTD. (hereinafter referred to as "Hanergy").
From the perspective of investment equipment cost, in 2020, the equipment investment cost of n-TOPCon monocrystalline silicon solar cells is 250 million yuan /GW, which is only 50 million yuan /GW higher than the PERC crystal silicon solar cells, while the equipment investment cost of HJT monocrystalline silicon solar cells is as high as 400 to 500 million yuan /GW.
From the perspective of production cost, n-TOPCon monocrystalline silicon solar cells also use high-temperature slurry, and the increase in slurry consumption is not obvious compared with PERC crystal silicon solar cells. HJT monocrystalline silicon solar cells use low-temperature slurry, which has high price and large slurry consumption. In addition, the production of such solar cells requires the use of target materials, and the depreciation cost caused by high equipment investment is higher, so the production cost of such solar cells is relatively higher. According to the CDI Think Tank Integrated Circuit Research Institute (hereinafter referred to as "CDI Think Tank") estimates, the production cost of n-TOPCon monocrystalline silicon solar cells in 2020 is 0.934 yuan /W, which is 0.340 yuan /W lower than that of HJT monocrystalline silicon solar cells. The comparison of industrialization of different solar cell technologies is shown in Table 2.
1.4HJT monocrystalline silicon solar cell technology is an N-type crystalline silicon solar cell technology that is expected to achieve mass production in the next 2 to 3 years
In 2020, the market share of HJT monocrystalline silicon solar cells is still low, only about 1.5%. However, it is expected that in Q2 to Q3 of 2021, there will be verification results on the operational stability of domestic equipment in the new HJT project, when the domestically produced core equipment with greater capacity, such as chemical vapor deposition (CVD) equipment and physical vapor deposition (PVD) equipment, will also be further mature. Therefore, it is expected that the capacity expansion of HJT monocrystalline silicon solar cells in the second half of 2021 will reach the gigawatt level, and the industrialization scenario of HJT monocrystalline silicon solar cells in 2022 will be the scale of a single project of several gigawatts, and its market share will continue to increase.
With the technological progress of equipment manufacturers (such as improving the photoelectric conversion efficiency and production timing of solar cells), the localization of silver paste and target materials, and the lamination of silicon wafers (the thickness is reduced to 120-130μm, and the premium of N-type silicon wafers is reduced), these factors will jointly promote the real cost reduction of HJT monocrystalline silicon solar cell technology. The economy of mass production is further highlighted.
1.4.1 Depreciation of equipment
With the cost reduction and efficiency improvement of domestic equipment, there is still a large space for cost reduction of 400 to 500 million yuan /GW of equipment investment in 2020. On the one hand, the photoelectric conversion efficiency and mass production stability of HJT monocrystalline silicon solar cells can be improved by optimizing the hardware structure design and parameter indexes of the equipment. On the other hand, by increasing the production capacity of a single device and improving the localization of the equipment, the initial investment cost and the comprehensive cost of HJT monocrystalline silicon solar cells can be reduced, and the economy of mass production of HJT monocrystalline silicon solar cells can be improved.
From the results of the public bidding for the 1GW HJT mass production project of Jintang Base of Tongwei Group Co., LTD. (hereinafter referred to as "Tongwei") at the end of 2020, it can be seen that HJT monocrystalline silicon solar cell technology has improved in unit price, localization rate and production pace. From the point of view of unit price, the bidding result has been lower than the level of 450 million yuan /GW. From the point of view of localization rate, in addition to half of the equipment used in the cleaning process of the Japanese YAC company's equipment, all the rest of the equipment are domestic equipment, localization rate has exceeded 95%, close to 100%.
From the perspective of equipment investment cost, the equipment investment cost of HJT monocrystalline silicon solar cells in 2020 is still about 450 million yuan /GW, although compared with 1 billion yuan /GW in 2019, it is still more than 2 times the investment cost of PERC crystal silicon solar cell equipment. It is expected that after 1 to 2 years, with the gradual stable production of domestic equipment in the new production line and the gradual improvement of production capacity, the equipment investment cost is expected to fall to less than 300 million yuan /GW.
1.4.2 Slurry
Reducing the consumption of silver paste and increasing the localization rate of low temperature silver paste are two important aspects to reduce the cost of HJT monocrystalline silicon solar cells.
1) The application of non-main gate and multi-main gate technology in HJT monocrystalline silicon solar cells and photovoltaic modules has rapidly reduced the consumption of silver paste. Studies have shown that the multi-master grid technology can increase the photoelectric conversion efficiency of the solar cell end by about 0.2%, and save 25% ~ 35% of the front silver paste consumption [1]. The application of multi-master grid technology to HJT monocrystalline silicon solar cells can also effectively reduce the silver paste consumption. The silver paste consumption of single HJT monocrystalline silicon solar cell using 5BB technology is about 300 mg, the cost of silver paste is about 1.9 ~ 2.1 yuan/piece, and the cost of silver paste using MBB technology is about 1.1 ~ 1.2 yuan/piece. The change trend of low-temperature slurry consumption from 2020 to 2030 is shown in Figure 2.
2) The roof market with weak carrying capacity. Thin-film photovoltaic modules have the characteristics of lightweight, so it is still possible to set up photovoltaic power generation systems using thin-film photovoltaic modules on some roofs that are not suitable for installing crystalline silicon photovoltaic modules. Taking the flexible copper indium gallium Tin (CIGS) thin film photovoltaic modules produced by Hanergy as an example, their weight does not exceed 4 kg per square meter, which is very suitable for light steel roofs with small loads such as industrial plants, logistics warehousing, airports, stations, pavilions, and sports venues. Conventional crystalline silicon PV modules weigh more than 11 kg per square meter and are not suitable for these special applications.
Data show that in 2020, about 80% of China's industrial plants and warehouses are light steel roofs, of which the load margin is less than 15 kg/m2 of the roof accounted for 86%, can not be installed using traditional crystalline silicon photovoltaic modules or glass-based photovoltaic modules of photovoltaic power generation system, so the market is the exclusive market of thin and flexible thin film photovoltaic modules. Based on the inventory and installation area of 20% of the incremental roof area in 2014, the demand for thin film photovoltaic modules is greater than 50 GW.
3) Mobile energy markets. Because thin film solar cells can use stainless steel or polymer substrates to produce flexible thin film photovoltaic modules, by combining thin film power generation technology with electronic information products, vehicles (such as ships, RV, etc.), outdoor products, aerospace and other fields of several 10 products, you can create an emerging market with broad market prospects. The mobile energy market.
However, at present, the application space of the above three markets is relatively limited, mainly reflected in: 1) In the BIPV market, the combination of photovoltaic modules and building materials is more closely combined with the design and construction of buildings, but the relevant standards and regulatory measures are still vacant, and a mature business model has not yet been formed. At present, only some commercial and public buildings have demonstration applications, and it will take some time to leave the large-scale application stage. At the same time, in the context of carbon peak and carbon neutrality, the BIPV market with the most growth potential, crystalline silicon photovoltaic module companies are also actively entering, and seize the application market space of flexible thin film photovoltaic modules with its cost-effective advantages.
2) The share of the roof market with weak carrying capacity in the overall PV market is not high. 3) Although the overall volume of the mobile energy market is large, the single scale is small, in watts, and the product price is high, only for special needs, and the overall market demand is on the order of gigawatt. In summary, it can be seen that the application market space of thin film photovoltaic modules is relatively limited.
From the current actual situation of the photovoltaic industry can also be seen, in addition to the United States First Solar company, most of the thin film photovoltaic module enterprises for the scale of 100 megawatts, the average annual shipment of no more than 100 MW, which compared with the crystal silicon photovoltaic module enterprises at every turn more than 10 GW shipments compared to the obvious gap.
Various solar cell technologies are compared and analyzed from the technical point of view.
1) At present, the cost performance of thin film solar cells is low. At present, the mass-produced thin film solar cells, including silicon-based thin film solar cells, CIGS thin film solar cells, cadmium telluride (CdTe) thin film solar cells, gallium arsenide (GaAs) thin film solar cells, etc., are unable to compete with crystalline silicon solar cells in terms of product cost performance. At present, compared with crystalline silicon solar cells, silicon-based thin film solar cells have no obvious advantages in terms of product performance and production costs, and their space for technological improvement is limited, so relevant manufacturers have reduced production or withdrawn from the field.
GaAs thin film solar cells have ultra-high photoelectric conversion efficiency, with the highest photoelectric conversion efficiency of 29.1% in the single-junction laboratory, 32.9% in the double-junction laboratory and 39.2% in the six-junction laboratory. However, the production cost of GaAs thin film solar cells is high, and it is mainly used in military, aerospace and other fields that are not sensitive to cost. The photoelectric conversion efficiency of mainstream mass-produced thin film solar cells, such as CIGS thin film solar cells and CdTe thin film solar cells, is lower than that of crystalline silicon photovoltaic modules.
The preparation process of organic thin film solar cells is relatively simple, but due to the low photoelectric conversion efficiency, the development has been slow in recent years, resulting in limited space for improving the photoelectric conversion efficiency. The process of laminated solar cells is complicated, and the industrialization is faced with a big problem. Therefore, in the market segment that overlaps with crystalline silicon photovoltaic modules, thin film solar cells are less competitive.
The change trend of photoelectric conversion efficiency of various solar cell and photovoltaic module technologies from 2020 to 2030 is shown in Table 4.
2) The roof market with weak carrying capacity. Thin-film photovoltaic modules have the characteristics of lightweight, so it is still possible to set up photovoltaic power generation systems using thin-film photovoltaic modules on some roofs that are not suitable for installing crystalline silicon photovoltaic modules. Taking the flexible copper indium gallium Tin (CIGS) thin film photovoltaic modules produced by Hanergy as an example, their weight does not exceed 4 kg per square meter, which is very suitable for light steel roofs with small loads such as industrial plants, logistics warehousing, airports, stations, pavilions, and sports venues. Conventional crystalline silicon PV modules weigh more than 11 kg per square meter and are not suitable for these special applications.
Data show that in 2020, about 80% of China's industrial plants and warehouses are light steel roofs, of which the load margin is less than 15 kg/m2 of the roof accounted for 86%, can not be installed using traditional crystalline silicon photovoltaic modules or glass-based photovoltaic modules of photovoltaic power generation system, so the market is the exclusive market of thin and flexible thin film photovoltaic modules. Based on the inventory and installation area of 20% of the incremental roof area in 2014, the demand for thin film photovoltaic modules is greater than 50 GW.
3) Mobile energy markets. Because thin film solar cells can use stainless steel or polymer substrates to produce flexible thin film photovoltaic modules, by combining thin film power generation technology with electronic information products, vehicles (such as ships, RV, etc.), outdoor products, aerospace and other fields of several 10 products, you can create an emerging market with broad market prospects. The mobile energy market.
However, at present, the application space of the above three markets is relatively limited, mainly reflected in: 1) In the BIPV market, the combination of photovoltaic modules and building materials is more closely combined with the design and construction of buildings, but the relevant standards and regulatory measures are still vacant, and a mature business model has not yet been formed. At present, only some commercial and public buildings have demonstration applications, and it will take some time to leave the large-scale application stage. At the same time, in the context of carbon peak and carbon neutrality, the BIPV market with the most growth potential, crystalline silicon photovoltaic module companies are also actively entering, and seize the application market space of flexible thin film photovoltaic modules with its cost-effective advantages.
2) The share of the roof market with weak carrying capacity in the overall PV market is not high. 3) Although the overall volume of the mobile energy market is large, the single scale is small, in watts, and the product price is high, only for special needs, and the overall market demand is on the order of gigawatt. In summary, it can be seen that the application market space of thin film photovoltaic modules is relatively limited.
From the current actual situation of the photovoltaic industry can also be seen, in addition to the United States First Solar company, most of the thin film photovoltaic module enterprises for the scale of 100 megawatts, the average annual shipment of no more than 100 MW, which compared with the crystal silicon photovoltaic module enterprises at every turn more than 10 GW shipments compared to the obvious gap.
Various solar cell technologies are compared and analyzed from the technical point of view.
1) At present, the cost performance of thin film solar cells is low. At present, the mass-produced thin film solar cells, including silicon-based thin film solar cells, CIGS thin film solar cells, cadmium telluride (CdTe) thin film solar cells, gallium arsenide (GaAs) thin film solar cells, etc., are unable to compete with crystalline silicon solar cells in terms of product cost performance. At present, compared with crystalline silicon solar cells, silicon-based thin film solar cells have no obvious advantages in terms of product performance and production costs, and their space for technological improvement is limited, so relevant manufacturers have reduced production or withdrawn from the field.
GaAs thin film solar cells have ultra-high photoelectric conversion efficiency, with the highest photoelectric conversion efficiency of 29.1% in the single-junction laboratory, 32.9% in the double-junction laboratory and 39.2% in the six-junction laboratory. However, the production cost of GaAs thin film solar cells is high, and it is mainly used in military, aerospace and other fields that are not sensitive to cost. The photoelectric conversion efficiency of mainstream mass-produced thin film solar cells, such as CIGS thin film solar cells and CdTe thin film solar cells, is lower than that of crystalline silicon photovoltaic modules.
The preparation process of organic thin film solar cells is relatively simple, but due to the low photoelectric conversion efficiency, the development has been slow in recent years, resulting in limited space for improving the photoelectric conversion efficiency. The process of laminated solar cells is complicated, and the industrialization is faced with a big problem. Therefore, in the market segment that overlaps with crystalline silicon photovoltaic modules, thin film solar cells are less competitive.
The change trend of photoelectric conversion efficiency of various solar cell and photovoltaic module technologies from 2020 to 2030 is shown in Table 4.
2) The closed nature of thin film solar cell technology puts it at a disadvantage in the competition. Crystalline silicon photovoltaic modules have a high market share, a long industrial chain and many participating enterprises, there are thousands of enterprises in China alone, through the technological progress of different industrial chain links for the technological innovation and cost reduction of crystalline silicon solar cells contributed to the force, scientific research institutions have also turned to the research and development of efficient crystalline silicon solar cell technology.
Thin film Solar cell technology due to the early investment, high technical threshold, short industrial chain, and the process is highly integrated in the equipment, so that there are only a handful of participating enterprises, in recent years, there are many enterprises have withdrawn from the research and development and production of thin film solar cells, such as Taiwan Integrated Circuit Manufacturing Co., LTD., Germany's Wurth Solar Company. The closed characteristics of this kind of solar cell technology make its production process in the hands of a small number of enterprises, compared with crystalline silicon solar cells, thin film solar cell technology progress of the driving force is thin, which brings a certain risk to the development of thin film solar cell technology.
As we all know, in the early development of the flat panel display industry, although plasma display (PDP) technology relative to thin film transistor liquid crystal display (TFT-LCD) technology has a greater technical advantage, but it is because of the latter's participation in the number of enterprises, a wide range, and the former only a Japanese Panasonic company in the promotion of PDP technology was eventually eliminated by the market. Similarly, thin-film solar cells also need to be alert to such market risks.
In summary, thin film solar cells are not enough to shake the market mainstream position of crystalline silicon solar cells.
1.6 Perovskite solar cells have great development potential, but there are still technical problems to be solved in commercialization
When perovskite solar cells were first produced in 2009, their photoelectric conversion efficiency was only 3.8%, after more than 10 years of development, the laboratory photoelectric conversion efficiency of perovskite solar cells has reached 25.5%, and the laboratory photoelectric conversion efficiency of perovskite/silicon laminated solar cells has reached 29.52%. Its photoelectric conversion efficiency growth rate is unique in the solar cell industry. In addition to high photoelectric conversion efficiency and rapid improvement, perovskite solar cells also have the advantages of abundant raw materials, low cost, relatively simple technical process, low carbon and environmental protection manufacturing process.
Recent studies have improved the stability of perovskite solar cells and the photoelectric conversion efficiency of large-area perovskite solar cells, making this solar cell technology one of the most anticipated and important new technical directions in the field of solar cells. However, there are still obstacles to the commercialization of perovskite solar cells and photovoltaic modules, which are reflected in:
1) The photoelectric conversion efficiency of large-size perovskite photovoltaic modules needs to be improved. At present, the size of perovskite solar cells with high photoelectric conversion efficiency is very small, so how to improve the photoelectric conversion efficiency of large size and module level perovskite photovoltaic modules to the same as the photoelectric conversion efficiency of small size, while maintaining a certain performance stability of photovoltaic modules is a common concern of academia and industry.
2) The problem of photoattenuation of the material itself still needs to be broken through. The main factors that cause the unstable performance of perovskite photovoltaic modules include that the crystalline phase of perovskite tends to change from a cubic phase (high performance) to a rhemisquare phase (low performance) in a humid and hot environment, resulting in the deterioration of the electrical performance of photovoltaic modules. In the case of long-term light, perovskite is prone to ion migration, so that its lattice structure changes, resulting in the photoelectric conversion efficiency of this type of photovoltaic module is reduced. Because this belongs to the characteristics of perovskite material itself, it is difficult to solve.
3) The development of commercial perovskite solar cells and PV modules faces challenges. The production of medium-size (area of about 10 cm2) photovoltaic modules can use screen printing, coating and evaporation methods, but the production of large-size perovskite solar cells and photovoltaic modules has higher requirements for the speed, stability and scalability of the process, which makes further increase the area of perovskite photovoltaic modules face many technical challenges.
In addition, perovskite PV modules in different fields also need to take into account special product design and production constraints, including substrate type, stacking methods, various materials, corresponding deposition methods, interconnection and packaging conditions, and durability. Therefore, overall, the commercial prospects of perovskite solar cells and photovoltaic modules still have many obstacles to overcome.
2 Conclusion
Based on all kinds of photovoltaic power generation technology routes emerging at present, this paper judges and predicts the development trend of photovoltaic power generation technology in the future, and draws relevant conclusions, in order to provide reference for photovoltaic enterprises to choose their own technical routes.
1) PERC crystal silicon solar cells are the solar cell type with the highest market share at present, and the cost performance advantage is obvious, and there is still room for improvement.
2) N-type crystalline silicon solar cell technology is an important development direction of future solar cell technology.
3) n-TOPCon monocrystalline silicon solar cell technology is expected to achieve rapid mass production of N-type crystalline silicon solar cell technology.
4) HJT monocrystalline silicon solar cell technology is expected to achieve mass production in the next 2 to 3 years N-type crystalline silicon solar cell technology.
5) Thin film solar cells have their special application scenarios, but it is still not enough to shake the mainstream position of crystalline silicon solar cells in the market.
6) Perovskite solar cells have great development potential, but there are still technical problems to be solved in commercialization.以上翻譯結(jié)果來自有道神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)翻譯（YNMT）· 通用場景
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